In Aleman’s outlook, GDP, following a rise of 2.1% in Q1 and by his estimate, 1.3% in Q2, will expand at just 0.2% in the current quarter. “Unless the economy accelerates, there’s no reason to hire more workers.” Instead, he views tough times ahead, where a tumbling labor market drives the downturn. “We’ve already created 85% of the jobs generated in 2019 when the economy grew by 2.2%,” he says. “The weakest link in the economy is the employment side.” He expects that overall job growth, including for government, will fall below the 100,000 level in the coming months. ![]() will slow a lot in the second half of 2023,” says Aleman. The frail private sector reading for June is a crucial harbinger. Of course, a lot of this weakness was understated in the overall numbers because of the outrageous degree of government hiring.” The jobs numbers point to a looming recession “If you look at retail trade, wholesale trade, transportation, and warehousing, the parts that perform well in a rising economy, they did relatively poorly. “They are not indicators of a strong economy!” adds Aleman. Together, the two sectors accounted for 44% of the total gains. “The main areas that grow in slowdown periods are health care services and social services, and they were the leading job-creators in June,” he says. ![]() “But as the public numbers get closer to where they were in early 2020, they will slow substantially.”įor Aleman, the mix of employment categories that are rising and retreating point to a fading outlook. “The big numbers could continue for a couple more months,” he notes. Luther explains that the the boom in public hiring is nearing an end. “Just as the private sector raced to get back to pre-pandemic numbers, the public sector’s making that adjustment now, with a lag.” “The higher pay enabled the private sector to scoop up the lion’s share of workers in 20,” says Luther. “Public payrolls have gained, and private payrolls have slowed quite a bit.” He explains that companies’ ability to raise pay far faster than the arms of government gave the private sector the edge in attracting workers as the economy healed from the pandemic’s ravages. “We’ve seen a reversal of the 20 trend this year,” says Luther. But as the June BLS reported stated, it remains 0.7% below the February 2020 mark. Since then, government share has gradually and steadily regained ground. From early 2020 to mid-2021, the combined state, local and federal rosters shrank by 1.5 million. Governments are playing catchup following sharp cutbacks enacted during the pandemic to offset collapsing tax revenues. The public sector’s hiring binge will prove temporary-for a basic reason. Why big government hiring can’t last, and why the private hiring will get even weaker Upshot: Once you strip out the government bulge, the private job creation numbers are feeble, and getting more so. But the government tally has stayed consistently strong, giving the BLS’s monthly headline-makers an unsustainable lift. Since then, the numbers have mostly been falling month after month. The private sector’s headcount swelled by 461,000 in January in a last blowout before the upward slope flattened to 180,000 in February. Especially revealing is the cascading trajectory. That compares to average monthly advances of 344,000 in 2022 and 216,000 in 2019. Intervention Specialist Robbie Robinson – Ext.By contrast, businesses big and small added only 149,000 workers in June. The J-Teams approach is multi-directional, considering both the addict and their families, including detox, counseling, IOP (Intensive Outpatient Program), Residential or rehab in other states. The J-Team was formed to direct concentrated attention at both juvenile and adult narcotic addiction and its primary function is to address the growing narcotic problem through education, Intervention, and Enforcement. To address this issue The Santa Clarita Sheriff Station and the city of Santa Clarita developed and implemented the J-TEAM. ![]() In 2010 nationwide trends and local concerns prompted officials from the Santa Clarita Valley Sheriff’s Station in partner with the City of Santa Clarita and the County of Los Angeles to conduct a thorough assessment into the scope of the narcotic epidemic in the Santa Clarita Valley.
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